Israel's decision to expand the war into Lebanon stems from a set of goals that will impact the entire region. We must adjust to the notion that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is inclined towards prolonged conflict and excessive devastation throughout the Middle East.
Nearly a year has elapsed since the onset of the genocide in Gaza, where Israel's demolition of infrastructure parallels the devastation of cities during World War II. It has acted in flagrant violation of international law, despite receiving substantial support from the West. I wonder if any nation besides the United States could have achieved all of this without paying a significant price.
This may be Israel's sole achievement in the ongoing campaign, built upon the moral and legal failures of the West. In Gaza, Israel has a significant challenge that will influence the nation: the captive crisis, which has diminished in public discussion due to the conflict with Lebanon.
Israel's political landscape is split into two predominant camps regarding the war: a militaristic, right-wing camp advocating for a cultural shift in Israeli society from a Western one to a combative one, demonstrated by Brigadier General Barak Hiram, who, upon his appointment as commander of the military's Gaza division, condemned the "hedonistic" Israeli lifestyle. Conversely, secular elites and captive families constitute a camp that imagines Israeli society as part of the West and believes the state should exert all its efforts to secure the return of the captives.
Both main camps in Israel endorse the war. This is succinctly encapsulated by a slogan articulated by captive families during protests in Tel Aviv following the discovery of six captives' bodies: “A deal, and then we return.” This signifies their intention to negotiate with Hamas, secure the release of captives, and subsequently resume their occupation of Gaza. Ironically, it is via this opposition that we can comprehend the vast Israeli consensus endorsing the war on all fronts.
Netanyahu understands the Israeli mentality and the challenges in realizing his military objectives. After nearly a year of war, Hamas remains intact, numerous captives remain in Gaza, and any ceasefire deal would be perceived as a failure to "destroy Hamas."
In light of the failures in Gaza, Netanyahu has redirected his attention to Lebanon and seems prepared to incur costs in both Israeli lives and economic decline, along with the possibility of significant devastation in northern Israel.
But the ongoing genocide in Gaza and the launch of a second front in Lebanon are not, as certain analysts propose, solely a strategy by Netanyahu to retain power. This reasoning demonstrates a superficial comprehension of the Israeli mindset. Netanyahu depends on two primary foundations: the existential fear embedded in the Israeli psyche that the loss of military dominance equates to its loss of ‘’the right to exist‘’ (a classic colonial perspective); and profound hatred towards Palestinians within Israeli society, whose political culture ignores the murder of Palestinians and Arabs and is prepared to undertake disproportionate and ruthless measures without self-reflection. Netanyahu exploits these two sentiments to avoid accountability for his Gaza's failures by intensifying warfare and devastation. If Israel fails on these battlefields, it will be prepared to launch an unrestrained onslaught throughout the region.
Netanyahu is attempting to convey to other Arab regimes that if Israel does not accomplish its objectives, more and more Arabs will die, and they will have to deal with the social and political consequences.
Israel has thus far failed in attaining the objectives it established at the onset of the war in Gaza, while the military threats from Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon persistently escalate.
Amid a culture of Jewish supremacy and sustained Western backing, Israel is bracing for prolonged years of war. It is carrying out an ethnic cleansing policy in both Gaza and the occupied West Bank, with discussions regarding the displacement of Palestinians to Egypt or Jordan. However, the Arab world, including the Palestinian Authority, has remained predominantly silent as Israel capitalizes on the existing circumstances to steal more Palestinian land. What is the extent to which the Arab region will be willing to tolerate without drawing red lines?