What are your predictions for future developments in Israels war on Gaza based on the current situation ?
The prevailing notion in political studies is that the war on Gaza is primarily orchestrated and perpetuated by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Public opinion within Israel frequently sustains the assumption.
The majority of recent polls conducted during the Israeli onslaught in Gaza indicate that a significant number of Israelis perceive Netanyahu's actions as driven by personal, political, and familial motives.
However, this conclusion is very convenient and lacks complete accuracy. The statement erroneously believes that the Israeli population is against Netanyahu's military actions in Gaza. However, in truth, they have shown strong support for all strategies employed by the Israeli armed forces thus far.
After more than 300 days of the war, 69 percent of Israelis are in favor of Netanyahu's aggressive strategies, such as carrying out assassinations. This includes the recent execution of Ismail Haniyeh, the top political leader of Hamas, which took place in Tehran on July 31.
Netanyahu's choice to focus on a political leader is indicative of his personal shortcomings and desperation. How can one account for the excitement of the Israeli people for the widening of the circle of violence?
The remedy cannot be found in the occurrence of the October 7 incident, specifically the Palestinian attack on the Gaza Envelope area and the remarkable defeat of the Israeli military. It is necessary to move beyond the limited perspective of the revenge theory, which has been the main focus of our knowledge and analysis of the Israeli genocide in Gaza.
In the years leading up to the current war, Israel has gradually shifted towards right-wing and far-right ideologies. The political radicalism of these groups has surpassed that of any previous generation of Zionist leaders who have governed Israel since the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in 1948.
In a poll conducted by the Israeli Democracy Institute and published in January 2023, it was found that 73 percent of Israeli Jews in the age group of 18 to 24 define themselves as 'right wing'.
Given that individuals such as Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, and Orit Strook, who currently hold positions as ministers in Israel, are likewise categorized as 'right-wing', it may be inferred that a significant portion of Israeli youth can be characterized as right-wing extremists.
These youth are the major component of both the Israeli army and the settler movement. They are responsible for perpetrating the genocide in Gaza, the daily pogroms in the West Bank, and acting as the main participants in the extensive racist campaigns against the Palestinian Arab communities within Israel.
A significant number of experts have attempted to elucidate the transformation of Israel into a predominantly rightwing society, as well as the role of the youth as the guardians of Israel's version of self-destructing nationalism.
The answer, therefore, ought to be direct and clear. Israel's far-right extremism can be seen as a logical progression of the Zionist ideology, which, even in its more ‘liberal’ forms, has always been based on ethnic resentment, a belief in racial superiority, and a tendency towards aggression.
While ideological Zionism has consistently pursued a path of settler-colonialism and ethnic cleansing, there has been a fight between different factions within Israeli society.
The self-proclaimed liberals, consisting of influential figures in the military, business community, and certain centrist and leftist political factions, tried to preserve a delicate equilibrium between a colonial, apartheid system in occupied Palestine and a discriminatory liberal framework that exclusively benefits Jews within Israel.
The extreme right-wing faction had alternative plans. For a significant period, the Israeli right-wing faction, under the leadership of Netanyahu himself, has considered their ideological adversaries within Israel as traitors for even attempting to participate in a 'peace process' with the Palestinians, even if that process was fake.
It was important, to the right, that the so-called "Israel proper" and the illegal Jewish settlements be physically and conceptually contiguous to one another.
The settlers gradually transitioned from the periphery of Israeli politics to its core over the course of several years.
Israel experienced five distinct general elections from April 2019 until November 2022. While many people were primarily concerned with Netanyahu's impact on the division within Israeli society, the elections were actually a significant battle between Israel's ideological factions, determining the country's destiny and the course of Zionism.
The far-right extremists emerged victorious in the recent elections, resulting in the establishment of the most politically stable Israeli government in years. October 7 occurred while the right was preparing to permanently alter Israel's governmental, educational, military, and, most crucially, judicial structures.
At first, the Hamas attack and its consequences presented a difficulty for every sector of Israeli society: the embarrassed military, the weakened intelligence, the humiliated politicians, the perplexed media, and the enraged public.
However, the most significant obstacle was encountered by the far-right, since they were on the verge of influencing the future of Israel for many years to come. Therefore, the Gaza battle holds significance not only for Netanyahu, but also for the future of Israel's far-right movement, whose entire political and ideological agenda has been severely damaged, possibly irreparably.
This analysis seeks to clarify the seeming paradoxes inside Israeli society, such as the skepticism towards Netanyahu's intentions while yet having faith in the war; the prevalent disapproval of his overall failure, yet the endorsement of his specific actions, and so on.
Netanyahu's ability to mislead Israelis is not the sole answer to this apparent confusion. Regardless of the Israeli right's complete loss of confidence in Netanyahu, the absence of his uniting presence spells doom not only for the far-right movement's prospects of regaining credibility, but also for the very survival of Zionism.