Who is responsible for the bombing of the Baptist Hospital in Gaza ?

On the evening of October, 17th, Israeli warplanes bombed the last remaining Christian hospital in Gaza – the Baptist hospital, also known as the Arab national hospital, which was a refuge for approximately 5,000 people, murdering 800+ civilians are dead and final count is yet to be released.
Prior to the massacre, Israel’s Prime Minister twitter account just posted, then deleted this insane tweet calling Palestinians “children of darkness” living by the “law of the jungle.”, dehumanizing Palestinians to justify the ongoing bombardment of Gaza which has resulted in between 3,000 and 4,000 Palestinians killed.
Israel Prime Minister racist tweet.
Zionists and their media outlets had then rushed to, as usual, deny the accusations of bombing the hospital. The only problem is that they all contradicted each other, which further proves that they are clearly lying about the event. For example, i24, the Israeli news outlet which has lied previously about the “beheading of Israeli babies”, has reported that the initial investigation by the IDF shows that the explosion occurred due to a “misfired rocket from Hamas”.
i24 News English initial report on hospital bombing.
Spokesperson for Israel, Hananya Naftali, who is appointed by Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has on the other hand reported that it was the Israeli air force that bombed the hospital, thus admitting that Israel massacred over 500+ civilians. Only problem? Naftali thought it was a “Hamas terrorist base”. He later proceeded to delete his tweet.
Hananya Naftali tweet reporting that Israel bombed the Baptist hospital.
Israel then claimed in a statement: “Following an analysis by the IDF's operational systems, a barrage of rockets was launched toward Israel, which passed in the vicinity of the hospital, when it was hit. According to intelligence information from a number of sources we have, Islamic Jihad terrorist organization is responsible for the failed rocket launch that hit the hospital.” This was spread across all Israeli affiliated media.
The Mossad tweet on the bombing of the Baptist hospital.
What they didn’t realize is that they had used an old video from 2022, which was actually a Russian SAM that had failed during boost phase.
Truth about video posted by The Mossad on the misfire of a PIJ rocket.
It is important to mention that the hospital, along with five others, were warned to evacuate by Israel earlier, which is both impossible considering the on-going humanitarian/medical crisis taking place in Gaza at the moment, as well as illegal under international law.
Al Jazeera report regarding evacuation orders from the IDF.
Israel’s twitter account had also posted a video, claiming that Islamic Jihad was responsible for the bombing of the hospital through a misfired rocket, however, they later mysteriously deleted the video, further proving their failure in deflecting the truth of the matter.
Israel’s tweet claiming that the bombing was a result of a misfired PIJ rocket - video was later deleted.
Another post by GeoConfirmed on twitter, which appears to conclude that it was Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket misfire based on mere synchronicity between a visible rocket fire over Gaza and the explosion geolocated on the site of the hospital.
The argument made by GeoConfirmed ignores two important points; How do you establish a causal link between the mid-air rocket explosion, and the massive explosion that you geolocated at the site of the hospital? And how do you rule out simultaneity between two events: rocket fire and IDF bombing? It does not seem possible, based on the data used by @GeoConfirmed, to discard the hypothesis of two synchronous events – one rocket fire and one targeted bombing – with no causal links between them.
The IDF has also published drone footage arguing that the absence of visible crater is "proof" that it's not them but "a failed rocket launch by PIJ.
Indeed, if a 1-ton bomb like a guided MK84 – many of which have been used by the @IDF to bomb Gaza – would indeed result in a large crater (10-15m wide), other missiles, such as a drone-fired Spike, for example, also used by the IDF, would not leave a considerable crater. On this topic, see the joint Forensic Architecture and Amnesty International’s analysis of the bombing of Rafah in 2014. And for comparison, see Human Rights Watch 2009’s report on drone strikes in Gaza.

"The drone-launched missiles detonate above the ground, which creates a narrow, relatively shallow crater from missile parts not involved in fragmentation hitting the ground."

For the historians, the "no crater" argument painfully resonates with the negationist argument of Robert Faurisson : no holes (visible in the roof structures of Auschwitz) = no gas chambers = no Holocaust.
Interestingly, as the investigator writes, same account now publishing actual picture of a small crater on site in Al-Ahli Hospital.
Now, let's look at the available information that would point to Israel's responsibility in this blast.
First, the IDF actually already bombed the hospital on the 14th, as a "warning" to evacuate, as @lemondefr has reported.
Second, the probability of the thesis that :
  • A fragment of a rocket exploded in mid-air over Gaza…
  • …would fall precisely on the courtyard of the hospital…
  • …and generate a blast capable of killing hundreds…
…seems extremely low.

“For having investigated and reported Israel's war crimes in Palestine, and in Gaza in particular, for over a decade, I must say that what we're witnessing communication-wise feels like textbook IDF disinformation and fog of war tactic...” Francesco Sebregondi.

Evidence of evacuation orders.
The use of this argument by IDF to cover up particularly deadly strikes, then admitting responsibility later, has already occurred many times in the past. For example:
Finally, we should take into account the testimony of surgeon Ghassan Abu Sitta, who had just moved to the Al-Ahli hospital from Shifa that morning and was operating as the hospital was hit.
Ghassan Abu Sitteh testimony - part 1.
Ghassan Abu Sitteh testimony - part 2.

“As we collectively mourn the hundreds of civilian victims, it's important to underline that an Israeli strike currently remains, by far, the most probable cause.” Francesco Sebregondi.

One more claim that the IDF reported was a recording that Israeli forces claim to be ‘Hamas operatives’ is recorded in stereo. Speakers on L and R channels.

“There is no way audio conversations are recorded in stereo, anywhere. Their unit took the audio stream and f*cked with it”

Several experts confirm Hamas’ view to Channel4News that the audio tape of “Hamas” operatives talking about the missile malfunction is a fake . They say the tone, syntax, accent and idiom are absurd.
What is much more likely is that the hospital was hit, with a very high probability, by a JDAM bomb since Hamas rockets don't possess such destructive power. This can mean two things:
  • It was the Israeli air force.
  • It was a targeted attack.
Hamas rocket vs JDAM bomb.
This can be proven through the Marine Corps Veteran expert analysis of the recent bombing incident at the hospital, which reveals the following critical findings:
  • Fuel Explosion Duration: The initial explosion likely lasted 0.5-0.75 seconds, emitting light for a brief period. This suggests it is not an incendiary device.
  • Parking Lot Damage: The damage in the parking lot is attributed to either overpressure or a fuel explosion. There's minimal debris near the cars.
  • Shielding Effect: A surrounding building shielded one side of the parking lot, preventing diesel/gas fires from reaching the vehicles. All windows in nearby buildings shattered due to the primary and fuel explosions.
  • Last Video Variation: The final video displays a smaller fuel explosion, and the submunition release is less clear.
This gives the following conclusions:
  • The explosive device likely ranged from 300-600 lbs. Larger bombs would've scattered more debris in the parking lot than on buildings.
  • A 700lb+ bomb would've caused more damage to building tops due to shockwaves.
  • Most visible damage is attributed to the fuel explosion; the primary explosion likely caused structural damage.
The probable munitions and their possessors:
  1. Mk-82/Mk-83 General Purpose Bombs: Possessed by: Multiple countries, including the US and NATO members. Versatile, unguided bombs.
  2. GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB): Possessed by: United States and allies. Known for precision strikes.
  3. GBU-12 Paveway II Laser-Guided Bomb: Possessed by: United States and allies. Converts unguided bombs into precise munitions.
  4. AGM-65 Maverick Missile: Possessed by: United States and allies. Air-to-surface missile for precision strikes.
Based on the audio analysis, we can hear what the Hamas missiles and a JDAM missile sound like. Then, we have the audio of the attack on the hospital, which sounds very similar to a JDAM missile. It is important to note Hamas does not have the infrastructure and capabilities to fire a JDAM. The insights given above offer clarity into the incident, highlighting potential munitions and the militaries that may possess them, and that could have been behind the attacks.
Based on the evidence, this could not have been the Islamic Jihad, as claimed by the Israeli Defense Force, based on our analysis of the information we have so far. They do not possess the capabilities for such advanced weaponry. It is important to note that this analysis is preliminary and is done by a Marine Corps Veteran Explosives & Ordinance Expert and reviewed by many others.
More proof:
  • The moment of impact does look like an airburst.
Moment of impact after the bomb.
  • The Israeli IAF aim the aerial bomb at a large crowd of refugees outside the hospital?
  • Look at the images. Car roofs have dents.
Car roof damage.
  • The following picture, a completely flattened car. This Indicates an airburst explosion.
Flattened car due to explosion.
  • Not a Hamas/IJ rocket's shrapnel that wasn't even above the hospital!
  • Also there is a lack of a smoking holes in the ground.
Preliminary analysis by Forensic Architecture, Al-Haq Org. & Earshot NGO into the Al-Ahli hospital blast in Gaza casts significant doubt on IOF claims that the source of the deadly explosion was a Palestinian-fired rocket travelling west to east.
Preliminary analysis patterns.
3D analysis shows patterns of radial fragmentation on the southwest side of the impact crater, as well as a shallow channel leading into the crater from the northeast. Such patterns indicate a likely projectile trajectory with northeast origins.
In reviewing the analysis, investigator & explosive weapons expert, Cobb Smith agrees the fragmentation patterns may indicate the projectile came from the northeast—the direction of the Israeli-controlled side of the Gaza perimeter—and not from the west, as claimed by the IDF.
Preliminary analysis: approximate projectile direction.
CobbSmith’s analysis of the crater size suggests a munition larger than eg a Spike or Hellfire missile commonly used by IDF drones. It is more consistent w/ the impact marks from an artillery shell—but w/o additional material evidence, we cannot make a definitive assessment.
Preliminary analysis: directionality of projectile direction.
The image below is taken by John Moore in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine in 2022 shows the directionality of fragmentation of an artillery shell - Ukrainian Army soldiers pass an impact crater made by opposing... - compared to the crater at the Al-Ahli site.
Artillery shell crater, Ukraine 2022.
Drawing upon available footage, our partner Earshot NGO performed independent audio analysis of the missile attack, the findings from which lend further credibility to our preliminary assessment of directionality.
Earshot NGO performed a Doppler Effect analysis from two videos from the missile attack on the Al-Ahli hospital. The results cast doubt on the IDF’s claim that the missile that hit the hospital approached from the south-west.
Results of Dopper effect analysis.
The Doppler Effect is a change in the observed frequency emitted by a sound source that is moving relative to an observer. In the first video, taken 150m south-east of the hospital, we hear a pronounced frequency increasing in pitch and then decreasing until impact.
The increasing pitch suggests the missile is accelerating towards the camera. The decreasing pitch suggests that the missile is now moving away from the camera while still accelerating, upon the missile’s impact.
Pitch analysis.
The IDF claimed the missile was fired by the Islamic Jihad from a south-western location. If this was the case, we would expect the pitch observed by this camera to increase continuously until the missile’s impact.
However, the Doppler Effect that we hear indicates that the missile was closer to the camera before hitting the hospital. This would mean that the missile approached the hospital from north-east, east or south-east.
Probable range of missile trajectory.
A second video captures the moment of the strike from around 1,500 meters north-west of the hospital. In this video, the missile can be heard moving with a less pronounced Doppler Effect, where the pitch is increasing up to the moment of the explosion.
Analysis: 1500m north west of Al Ahli hospital
This increasing pitch suggests the missile is continuously accelerating towards the camera until impact. The camera’s north-western location suggests an eastern missile trajectory, further decreasing the probability that the missile approached the hospital from south-west.
Trajectory: 1500m from Al Ahli hospital.
Israel has falsely claimed that ‘the IDF does not hit hospitals’. Al-Haq Org has footage of an IOF strike on the Al-Ahli Hospital cancer ward on 14 Oct (see image stills), and WHO has reported 59 attacks on healthcare in Gaza and 137 across the Occupied Territory since 7 Oct.
WHO reported attacks.
Ruins of hospital bombed by IDF.
Ruins of hospital bombed by IDF.
The IOF has a long history of providing false and misleading information after it has targeted and killed civilians. See: investigations into the killing of Shireen Abu Akleh Forensic Architecture and the bombing of the Al-Katibah building.
Earshot NGO analysed the recording released by IOF officials of an alleged exchange between members of Hamas implicating the Islamic Jihad in the attack. They found that the recording was manipulated and therefore not a credible source of evidence.
On the morning of October 18th, Israel Defence Forces released this video: Israel Defense Forces on X. Earshot performed an audio analysis and found that this recording was manipulated and cannot be used as a credible source of evidence.
When calls are intercepted, we would expect them to be single monophonic recordings with both voices on the same channel of audio. What is unusual in this alleged intercepted call is that we have the voices divided across two channels, left and right.
The fact that this recording is made up of two separate channels demonstrates that these two voices have been recorded independently. These two independent recordings have then been edited together with added effects (such as pan control).
Waveform analysis showing absence of bleed between left and right channels.
Though this audio analysis cannot categorically state that the audible dialogue is fake, Earshot's opinion is that the level of manipulation required to edit these two voices together disqualifies it as a source of credible evidence.
Further reading:
  • How Israeli PR attempts to control the narrative after an attack | The Big Picture S3E4
  • Al Jazeera investigation on the bombing of Al Ahli hospital