Is the pager attack in Lebanon an act of state sponsored terrorism ?
The detonation of numerous communications devices utilized by Hezbollah members, encompassing pagers and portable radios, has led to over of 30 fatalities and 4,500 injuries, with over 400 individuals in critical condition, as reported by Lebanon's health ministry following two rounds of attack.
The explosions occurred almost concurrently on Tuesday throughout a broad geographic region in the Lebanese capital, its outskirts, and in Syria.
A subsequent series of explosions occurred on Wednesday, including one at a funeral procession for the victims of the initial pager explosions. Shortly thereafter, Israel's Defence Minister Yoav Gallant announced the commencement of a "new phase" in the war with Gaza, indicating that "the centre of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces".
The lethal attacks by Israel act as a stark awakening for Hezbollah and Lebanon as a nation, and have multiple ramifications.
Israel seeks to alter the current balance of deterrence, instill uncertainty and disappointment among Hezbollah's members, and create a rift between the organization and the Lebanese populace by inflicting significant civilian losses.
The planned assault on gadgets parallels a sabotage operation aimed at centrifuges in Iranian uranium enrichment reactors. Israel successfully infiltrated a foreign chip factory and implanted explosives within the devices, which were then detonated after installation in the Iranian reactor.
Israel has been planning for war on the "northern front" for several years, especially after its loss in the 2006 war with Lebanon. Israel believes that war with Hezbollah is inevitable and essential to change the security and demographic conditions in the north.
The war may erupt within weeks or months, potentially accelerated to circumvent the challenges of initiating a land invasion during the rainy winter season in what is expected to be a lengthy military campaign.
Israel's assault on Hezbollah's communications infrastructure has been characterized as a "tactical triumph" and "victory" for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who pledged to escalate the war to safeguard the northern border, where over 60,000 Israelis have evacuated their residences due to rocket attacks from Hezbollah.
Israel has chosen to implement cyberterrorism and a policy of collective punishment as a component of its military strategy against Hezbollah by detonating devices in supermarkets in Beirut, targeting moving vehicles and homes, and striking heavily populated civilian areas.
It has indicated that its forthcoming war will be directed against all of Lebanon and its populace, without distinction between Hezbollah fighters and Lebanese civilians, and will target them indiscriminately.
Moreover, given that Israel's security cabinet has resolved to extend its military operations to the northern front, it would not be unexpected for Israel to initiate a substantial offensive against Hezbollah and Lebanon to preempt any reprisal and radically alter the rules of engagement and the balance of deterrence.
Following weeks of reports suggesting that US and Israeli officials were collaborating to mitigate tensions with Lebanon to avert a full-scale war, Israel's latest actions have contradicted any claims of deescalation.
Moreover, Israeli claims of calm after widespread protests may be deceptive amid a more volatile and escalating scenario.
The explosions have fostered a national consensus in Israel, temporarily overshadowing internal tensions inside Netanyahu's government, particularly between the defense minister and the prime minister.
Currently, there are no signs that the strategic landscape has shifted: the balance of deterrence and the terror campaign persists through alternative methods and at an increasing intensity.
It appears that Israel has determined that its ability to achieve a strategic victory and regional supremacy through conventional methods is diminishing. Instead, it has used a miniaturized version of mass destruction weapons and extensive targeting of Lebanon.
This operation may function as a temporary substitute for a comprehensive campaign of devastation, the results of which Israel cannot guarantee.
In summary, we are observing a new and developing paradigm in Israel's military policy.
The intensification of hostilities on the northern front with Lebanon may lead to the marginalization of the current genocidal war in Gaza and, consequently, the Palestinian cause.