Have Arabs regimes given up on Palestine ?
Thousands gathered at Doha's Imam Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab Mosque on 2 August to pay tribute to the assassinated Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, during funeral prayers.
Among them were numerous envoys from various Arab and Muslim nations who journeyed to Qatar to demonstrate their support for the Palestinian population in light of Israel's ongoing genocide in Gaza, which has sparked widespread anger in the region.
Notably missing from the burial were delegates from the administrations of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, and Morocco.
Although they had critical policy differences, previous events, such as the funeral of the former Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, united Arab leaders in a symbolic demonstration of solidarity and shared grief.
Despite their obvious contradictions, Arab states have traditionally recognized the importance of addressing the issue of Palestinian liberation in the eyes of their citizens, although they have typically done so through rhetoric rather than action.
Nevertheless, following their forceful repression of the Arab uprisings, authoritarian governments no longer require the endorsement of Palestine as a means to validate their authority. They now have unrestricted freedom to pursue highly unpopular policies, such as the process of normalizing relations with Israel.
The absences in Doha are a recent manifestation of a long-term transformation in the style and essence of these regimes, which has been evolving for over a decade and has been increasingly noticeable since 7 October.Indeed, some Arab states have provided substantial assistance to Israel following its initiation of the assault on Gaza. This has underscored the continuous regional dynamics in which the US and Israel have integrated these states into their security alliance.
Some have even taken measures to deploy their military resources in order to intercept retaliatory attacks from Iran and regional militias. Furthermore, they have redirected the transportation of goods through alternative trade routes as a response to the Houthis' blockade of Israeli trade in the Red Sea.
Egypt has diligently monitored its border with Gaza in close cooperation with Israel, exacerbating the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the blockaded territory.
In previous times, the notion of Arab rulers openly aligning with Israel would have been unthinkable. This prompts questions about how such a reality has come about and the potential consequences that the present moment will have on these alliances in the future.
Throughout history, the issue of Palestine has served as a convenient tool for Arab authoritarian leaders to solidify their legitimacy and redirect public dissatisfaction.
Starting in the 1950s, the Palestinian liberation movement became a significant element of modern Arab national identity. It was a key focus of President Gamal Abdel Nasser's Arab nationalist project in Egypt, as well as the Baath Party's agenda as it gained power in Syria and Iraq.
The Gulf monarchs frequently raised the banner of Palestine to strengthen their own legitimacy after the end of colonial rule, boost their influence in the area, and gain the support of their populace.
Authoritarian governments, who were widely known for their lack of tolerance towards popular mobilization, made exceptions for Palestine.
They permitted large-scale demonstrations, the formation of non-governmental organizations and humanitarian missions, and the growth of popular cultural expressions advocating for Palestinians, all the while displaying no tolerance for such actions within their own political sphere.
Political scientists have extensively theorized that these regimes' "authoritarian durability" stems, at least in part, from their ability to divert and redirect public dissatisfaction. In this scenario, Palestine often functioned as a beneficial mechanism for releasing pressure.
Despite Egypt and Jordan signing peace accords with Israel, their rulers nonetheless felt compelled to persist in their rhetorical demands for Palestinian liberation.
In response to popular outrage over Zionist colonial atrocities, they implemented robust measures, albeit largely symbolic, such as temporarily severing diplomatic ties and imposing stringent restrictions on economic and cultural exchanges with Israel.The Arab revolutions and their subsequent events dramatically disrupted what was once a reliable formula.
Following the widespread protests in 2010 that resulted in the destabilization or complete downfall of several governments, a wave of counter-revolutionary movements spread across the region. The 2013 military coup, which overthrew Egypt's fragile democratic process and established Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as the authoritarian leader of the largest Arab nation, was the most prominent display of this.
In 2021, Tunisia experienced an unexpected termination of its democratic transition when President Kais Saied removed the elected parliament and suspended the constitution.
At the same time, the process of transitioning from authoritarian rule to a new political system in Yemen, Libya, and Sudan was hindered by destructive civil conflicts that were supported by regional powers. Simultaneously, the large protests in Bahrain were forcefully suppressed by military forces dispatched by its Gulf neighbors. The revolutionary movement in Syria succumbed to foreign interventions, resulting in the devastation and isolation of the country.
The Arab revolutions demonstrated that, in prior decades, Palestine was not merely a diversion for Arab societies. Instead, it functioned as a platform for comprehensive political education, fostering the development of alternative political narratives and identities that challenged those propagated by the authorities.
The struggle for Palestine has shown the inherent vulnerabilities and ethical deficiencies of Arab regimes, which facilitated the advancement of the Zionist project while progressively aligning strategically with it.
Thus, the ramifications of Israel's genocidal war in Palestine on the broader region are inextricably linked to the larger political and socioeconomic trends of the past decade.This period has been predominantly characterized by vigorous efforts to reestablish an authoritarian regional order, primarily orchestrated by the governments of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
In addition to deploying their military and proxy forces, they have also assumed a significant portion of the economic burden to stabilize struggling regimes and move beyond the mass mobilization prompted by public upheaval that characterized the previous period.
In this endeavor, these aspiring regional powers collaborated closely with successive US administrations that aimed for "stability" by supporting repressive dictatorships, thereby ensuring the region remained under dependable control while the US sought to reestablish its influence elsewhere, particularly in its ongoing rivalries with Russia and China.The prevailing governance paradigm in much of the Arab area is characterized by violent, coercive authority, as evidenced by the widespread incarceration of political adversaries, the suppression of dissent, the intensification of media control, and the securitization of society.
These regimes, no longer merely paying lip respect to the Palestinian cause, moved steadily towards a US-Israeli view of regional security that would involve several states in the opposition against Iran and its allies.
A significant result of this effort was the Abraham Accords, which established normalized relations between Israel and other Arab nations.
As successive regimes aligned with the settler colony, it became evident that the traditional Arab stance, asserting that normalization would not occur until the realization of Palestinian self-determination, was little more than hollow rhetoric from a bygone era.
Following Donald Trump's normalization agreements with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, the Biden administration anticipated securing the most significant achievement for Israel: normalization with Saudi Arabia, which was expected to initiate a new "twin pillars" policy. The vision depicted a Middle East where Israel and Saudi Arabia would be militarily and economically fortified to jointly rule the area for the foreseeable future.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech to the United Nations General Assembly last September boasted of a "corridor of peace and prosperity" linking Asia and Europe from the UAE to Israel.
A comparable initiative to support Saudi Arabia and Iran as the region's dual powers during the 1970s disintegrated with the overthrow of the Shah in the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The current iteration of the policy seems to rest on even more shaky foundations.
Early October of last year saw the complete elimination of the Palestine issue from Arab politics.
Millions of Palestinians are condemned to suffer the hardships of life in the Gaza concentration camp or the apartheid and incremental ethnic cleansing of the West Bank and Jerusalem, while generations of refugees face an endless exile.The events of October 7 and the subsequent genocidal war have elevated Palestine to the forefront of the regional agenda, much to the disappointment of the US, Israel, and their Arab allies.
The Arab regimes that have effectively supported Israel with essential military and economic assistance today have a significantly larger challenge in their quest for internal legitimacy than they did before this war.
Recent events have revived long-dormant inquiries concerning the potential for public mobilization, to which the region's autocrats have responded with increased repression.
In late October, a rare and meticulously orchestrated protest march in Cairo advocating for Palestinians deviated from the government-sanctioned route and sought to get to Tahrir Square, where security officers promptly dispersed it.
Since then, the Sisi dictatorship has forbidden any protests.
Multiple Gulf states have rigorously prohibited the display of Palestinian flags and the wearing of keffiyehs. Saudi authorities in Mecca have repressed prayers in solidarity of Palestinians.
Viral videos of young Moroccans reveling in Israeli nightlife and admiring their hosts incited outrage, with numerous Moroccans attributing blame to the regime for the inappropriate display.
The disparity between Arab rulers and their populations has reached an unprecedented level, a condition that is evidently untenable in the long term.
The ongoing discourse over the destabilization of the liberal order due to steadfast Western support for Israel's actions has also exposed the Arab regimes.
Should the liberal order be shaken to its core on a global scale, it would produce significant repercussions in the region, especially if socioeconomic conditions deteriorate, exacerbating feelings of frustration and betrayal.
This time, inquiries regarding the potential role of resistance groups in the region's future have emerged.
Arab regimes, which have extensively attempted to enforce a deeply sectarian view of regional politics for years, are now perplexed about how to address the rising popularity of these groups.
People primarily perceive Hezbollah of Lebanon and Ansar Allah of Yemen as the only regional parties ready to face Israel's military invasion.
Indeed, the calculations guiding the actions of the region's ruling elites have faced unprecedented challenges, leading to a more unstable and combustible scenario in the forthcoming years.
Their sole tactic appears to be to wait in anticipation of the restoration of the pre-7 October order (or a variant thereof) following the ongoing Israeli onslaught.
However, even if Saudi Arabia implements its normalization plans, it would be aligning itself with a significantly diminished Israeli state, whose alleged military invincibility and diplomatic immunity have seen unparalleled defeats. The United States will face significantly greater opposition in managing this partnership due to its pivotal role in supplying arms to Israel and protecting it from accountability.
Furthermore, given the historically unprecedented death and devastation that has occurred in Gaza over the past 11 months, Palestine will remain ingrained in the region's collective consciousness, despite its omission from Saudi textbooks.
Issues related to reconstruction and resettlement, as well as political governance and addressing the needs of survivors, will require the attention of populations throughout the region.This is a pivotal moment that will define the generation and will be forever remembered.
While violent suppressions, civil wars, and the restoration of authoritarianism may have buried previous uprisings and their underlying reasons, contemporary Arab youth are aware of this genocide and the complicity of their ruling elites.
This will undoubtedly shape their fundamental beliefs and political decisions for years ahead.