Why is Jordan in a tricky position as it navigates the fallout from the war in Gaza ?
With each unsuccessful negotiation round, it becomes increasingly evident to the global audience that the impediment to a ceasefire in Gaza is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's.
Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defense minister, and David Barnea, the director of Mossad and leader of the Israeli negotiating delegation, possess an even clearer understanding.
A ceasefire agreement aligned with US President Joe Biden’s statement and the subsequent UN resolution, similar to the one already endorsed by Hamas, would achieve two objectives: destabilize Netanyahu’s government and strip him of the authority to conduct a perpetual intermittent war.
Although a ceasefire may theoretically enable him to recommence hostilities following the initial phase of captive and prisoner release, any sabotage of negotiations by Israel would, in practice, significantly reduce this opportunity after 6 weeks of peace.
It is becoming evident that Netanyahu's sole means of maintaining power is to keep Israel in a continuous, low-intensity state of war along all its borders.
A state of war serves as his Iron Dome, his get-out-of-jail card for evading accountability for the events of 7 October and an 11-month operation in Gaza that has evidently failed to subdue Hamas.
The war serves as a shield against losing the crown to the young usurper, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, and from potential incarceration due to numerous corruption allegations.
Given that the current or prospective US president is both incapable and disinclined to employ substantial measures to restrain Israel, such as terminating its arms supply—as evidenced by the recent approval of an additional $20 billion in weaponry—Netanyahu's stance remains the same.
The only direction of travel is to the next front line, and already, the Gaza operation is currently being wound down as units are reassigned for the impending battle against Hezbollah in Lebanon. All alternative paths result in ruin for Netanyahu.
Allowing this warmonger to indefinitely perpetuate a battle on five fronts incurs significant costs.
The most evident and expedient method of assessing the costs of permitting Netanyahu to maintain his position is seen in Jordan, a buffer zone that has absorbed refugees from decades of regional conflicts.
The fatigued and skeptical perspective on Jordan posits that the kingdom thrives on crisis, perpetually extending its hands for outside assistance.
That naively presumes the Hashemite kingdom will persist regardless of the turmoil instigated by its neighbors. Today, this is a big assumption.
The Western world should consider: what would the area look like if Jordan were to become a battleground once more, similar to its civil war with the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1970?
The primary threat to Jordan resides inside Israeli heads.
It is the concept that “Jordan is Palestine." Multiple iterations of this concept exist, including the Allon Plan, named for Israeli politician Yigal Allon, which proposed the annexation of significant portions of the West Bank by Israel, with the remainder designated to become part of Jordan. This plan attracts the self-identified "moderates" within the Israeli political landscape.
Likud has advocated for Israel to annex the entirety of the West Bank and to designate Jordan as a Palestinian state.
Recently, former US President Donald Trump's team proposed the concept of a Jordanian-Palestinian confederation.
The most basic iteration of this plan involves explicit threats to the Palestinian villages and towns in the occupied West Bank, compelling them to flee or be burned out by settlers.
The "Jordan option" has consistently been present in Israeli discourse. In 2010, a year marked by relative tranquility and stability for Israel, over half of the 120-member Knesset presented a proposal for discussion regarding “two states for two peoples on both sides of the River Jordan," implying the large-scale expulsion of Palestinians to Jordan.
A Knesset resolution passed shortly before Netanyahu's recent visit to the US to outlaw a future Palestinian state was similarly specific in its language.
It read:
“The Israeli Knesset opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state on any piece of land west of the Jordan River. The existence of a Palestinian state in the heart of Israel will pose an existential threat to the State of Israel and its citizens, will further extend the Israel-Palestinian Arab conflict and be a source of destabilisation for the entire region.”
By a vote of 68 to 9, all members of the ruling coalition and the majority of the opposition members supported the resolution.
For every Jordanian, the phrase “any piece of land west of the Jordan River” is crystal clear. It means that Israel will only accept a Palestinian state in Jordan.
“Not accept having the region’s future held hostage to the policies of the extremist Israeli government.”.
However, his challenges in maintaining his people's allegiance and the integrity of his kingdom have only just begun.
Israel's genocidal slaughter of the population of Gaza posed a significant dilemma for Abdullah. His response thus far has oscillated erratically between two opposing policies. This perilous high-wire balancing act passes for stability in Jordan.
The first and evident reaction is to perceive the situation in the occupied West Bank under Ben Gvir's leadership as an existential threat to the kingdom.
The militarization of settlers, recurrent attacks on Palestinian villages and towns, incursions into the Al-Aqsa Mosque complex, and Ben Gvir’s recent assertion that Jewish prayer is permissible in the mosque have only one purpose: to force as many Palestinians as possible to abandon their homes towards the east.
Ben Gvir is intentionally degrading the Hashemite kingdom's custodianship of the sacred places in Jerusalem.
This was the sole internationally recognized obligation that Abdullah's father, King Hussein, insisted on maintaining when he terminated all legal and administrative connections to the West Bank in July 1988.
This has generated a strong current of opinion in the royal court, articulated by the foreign minister, a position that conventionally represents the king's viewpoints. Ayman Safadi has been unreserved in his warnings; he has consistently raised concerns.
Safadi stated that an Israeli effort to displace Palestinians in Gaza might drive the area toward the brink of a regional conflict. He labeled Israel as a rogue state following the assassination of Hamas senior leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
And after his Israeli counterpart, Foreign Minister Israel Katz, advocated for the construction of a wall along the Jordanian border to deter "smuggling," Safadi stated:
“Neither the fabricated allegations nor the lies spread by extremist Israeli officials, including those targeting Jordan, can hide the fact that Israel’s aggression on Gaza, its violations of international law, and its violation of the rights of the Palestinian people are the greatest threat to the security and stability of the region.”
Queen Rania, a Palestinian, is the other prominent voice in this current. She denounced widespread hunger in Gaza, stating to CNN that it was “shameful.”
The opposite current in Jordan is to see all that is happening as the work of Iran. This represents the perspective of Jordan's formidable intelligence agency, an entity so vast that it operates as a de facto government. Instructed by MI6, it is associated with Israeli and Western intelligence agencies, as well as the Emirates, the latest entrant to the club.
The Jordanian mukhabarat is consistently frightened about a potential takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood, perceiving the surging popularity of Hamas's armed faction in Jordan since October 7 as a national threat.
As a result, it exerts all efforts to quell public demonstrations. The Jordanian authorities have lately broadened the scope and meaning of cybercrime to encompass “spreading fake news”, “provoking strife”, “threatening societal peace” and “contempt for religions”, a weapon employed solely against pro-Palestinian protests.
Powers like this only provoke. When Jordanian security personnel assaulted and detained Saraa al-Thahir and her mother for merely displaying a banner that challenged the Hashemite guardianship over Al-Aqsa following raids on the mosque conducted by Ben Gvir, outrage ensued.
The mukhabarat serves solely as a foreign master that despises them.
Israel adopts a stance of inherent superiority over its Arab regime partners, unnecessarily humiliating its covert supporters through disclosures in the Israeli media that expose the true extent of economic and military collaboration.
Israel is presently experiencing a tomato scarcity due to Turkey's cessation of shipments as part of the boycott of trade over Gaza. Israel has stopped importing tomatoes from Jordan due to concerns about potential cholera contamination.
The Israeli announcement urging a cessation of tomato imports from Jordan served as a crucial reminder to Jordanians that the trade persisted. Recently, Agriculture Minister Khaled Hneifat announced a gradual discontinuation of the export to ensure a supply for domestic markets.
Similarly, Israel continues to assert that its air force has access to Jordanian airspace in the event of missile and drone attacks from Iran.
Immediately after Channel 12 cited an official asserting that Jordan would permit Israeli jets to utilize its airspace to thwart the anticipated Iranian retaliation for Haniyeh’s death in Tehran, Jordanian authorities were compelled to deliver urgent hot-- and empty denials.
Al-Mamlaka TV, a state-owned Jordanian broadcast, cited a knowledgeable source stating that the kingdom will not permit the use of its airspace “under any circumstances to any party and won’t allow a military response for any belligerent party currently.”.
Which of the two claims do Jordanians believe? The Israeli one, undoubtedly, as it is widely acknowledged that Jordan lacks the capacity to prevent Israel or the United States from utilizing its airspace.
Such actions undermine the king and complicate life significantly for those in Jordan seeking to maintain covert cooperation with Israel.
Israel rubs salt into this wound at every chance, despite it being in Tel Aviv's interest to remain silent.
This has an immediate consequence. The longest and historically peaceful border of Israel is becoming increasingly porous each week.
A Maariv report indicates that around 4,000 individuals have breached the border with Israel in recent weeks, with Israeli authorities apprehending only a small percentage of them.
The motivations differ. They may be pursuing employment or engaging in drug trafficking. However, some individuals may also be trafficking weapons into the occupied West Bank.
Yitzhak Wasserlauf, the Israeli minister for the Negev and the Galilee, recently called for a plenary session of the government to address what he termed "mass infiltration from Jordan."
As reported by Maariv, he stated:
“It’s not just about a demographic problem … It is a real threat to the integrity of the state of Israel. The open borders are used as a channel for smuggling weapons, drugs and dangerous materials, and allow our enemies to infiltrate our territory.”
Consequently, Israel's response will involve constructing an additional wall and militarizing the border.
Israeli Army Radio recently claimed that the army's chief of staff, Herzi Halevi, is contemplating the establishment of a new military division to be stationed for hundreds of kilometers along the Jordanian border.
In response to Hezbollah and Iran's pledge to avenge the assassinations of Haniyeh and Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr, Safadi traveled to Tehran to prevent a recurrence of the incident in April, when Israeli and US airplanes intercepted drones over Jordanian airspace before they could reach Israel.
The visit marked the first formal trip of a Jordanian foreign minister to Iran in twenty years; nonetheless, it ultimately highlighted the challenges of sustaining the current balance.
When the mukhabarat's leading news anchors use sectarian rhetoric against the Palestinian populace by referencing events from 1970, they no longer receive the same attention. The East Bankers, who used to soak up this discourse, are looking to Hamas for leadership.
Israel lacks the power to stop this. It only has the capacity to incite war and violence in a region that is significantly larger than Gaza and the West Bank.
The fragile balance in Jordan will collapse if Netanyahu is allowed to continue with his present effort to resolve the Palestinian issue by force.
The crash will have far-reaching consequences.