What will be the October Surprise that utterly destroys the Harris campaign ?
The start of an extensive terror campaign against civilians in Lebanon is a fundamental component of the Israeli military strategy to achieve tactical military objectives. The recent Israeli strikes, initiated on September 17 with the detonation of pagers, have thus far resulted in over 5,000 Lebanese casualties, including fatalities and injuries.
For the past 11 months, the Lebanese Resistance has restricted its assaults solely to Israeli army bases situated in or near the "Jewish-only" colonies along the Lebanese border. The recent Israeli assault was presumably scheduled for September 16, prior to the detonation of the pagers, but was delayed owing to an unexpected conflict with the visit of Biden’s envoy, Amos Hochstein. Consequently, Israel may have failed, either due to confusion or technical difficulties, to reprogram the pagers’ activation to another date.
Nearly a year has passed since the start of the border skirmishes, making it difficult to ignore the timing of Benjamin Netanyahu's escalated military actions and their potential use as an October Surprise to benefit Donald Trump in the US elections. This is especially relevant considering the significance of the uncommitted Democratic and independent voters who oppose the genocide, particularly in crucial swing states.
The phenomenon known as the "October Surprise" in American elections is not unprecedented. In 1980, William Casey, the campaign manager for Ronald Reagan, popularized the term in American political vocabulary. In that election, the Reagan campaign faced allegations of potentially colluding with Iran to postpone an agreement for the release of American hostages, strategically timing it to enhance Reagan’s electoral prospects.
Many may remember the October Surprise of 2016, which significantly contributed to Hillary Clinton's defeat by Donald Trump. During that period, suspicions and allegations targeted Russia as the source of the emails leaked from the Clinton campaign headquarters.
The discussion primarily focused on the connection between Russia and the Trump campaign. The evidence of purported complicity, however, remained elusive and circumstantial, and ultimately did not result in any direct charges against Trump. Simultaneously, a well-established actor with substantial evidence of interference—yet predominantly overlooked by the US media for obvious reasons—was Israel, the greatest recipient of foreign aid from America.
Numerous journalists from 30 international news organizations, including Haaretz, the UK's Guardian and Observer, France's Le Monde, Germany's Der Spiegel, and Spain's El Pais, conducted an eight-month investigation into foreign interference in the 2016 American elections. The Guardian reported that the project revealed an Israeli “global private market in disinformation aimed at elections,” operated by Tal Hanan, a former Israeli special forces operative.
The "project" discovered that while US politicians and security agencies concentrated on Russia's involvement in electoral interference, they easily overlooked Israel's established connection. Furthermore, the Mueller Report extensively redacted Israel's significant participation in the October Surprise, while the Senate Intelligence Committee Report omitted it.
Furthermore, FBI documents pertaining to the Roger Stone investigation revealed that an Israeli handler informed Stone in a message dated August 9, 2016:
“Roger—As per PM (Netanyahu), we have one last shot … TRUMP IN FREE FALL. OCTOBER SURPRISE COMING!”
On August 12, the Israeli handler communicated:
“Roger, hello from Jerusalem … He (Trump) is going to be defeated unless we intervene.”
The full scope of the Israeli operation with Russia may remain unknown, as well as whether Israel had an informant within the Clinton team who facilitated the hacking. Notwithstanding evidence to the contrary, Russia served as an ideal scapegoat to redirect focus from Israel.
The Israeli involvement in the elections became pivotal, leading to a meeting on September 25, 2016, between Trump and his Zionist son-in-law, Jared Kushner, with Netanyahu in the Trump Tower penthouse. Subsequent to the meeting, which seemingly entailed a potential quid pro quo, Trump declared that if elected, he would acknowledge Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
Twelve days after the meeting, WikiLeaks released over 2,000 private emails from the Democratic campaign headquarters, a development that, according to most analysts, significantly undermined Clinton's aspirations for winning the presidency.
Echoing the meeting on September 25, 2016, last July convened once more with Trump, this time at Mar-a-Lago, to reestablish connections and likely offer Trump Act II for the 2024 October Surprise. It is imperative to recognize that, based on established historical evidence, Israeli interference in US elections is not simply speculation but rather persistent and deliberate attempts to undermine the American electoral system at all levels.
In the latest elections, an Israeli governmental entity established over 600 fake social media profiles that sent around 2,000 weekly disinformation messages to 128 elected officials in the United States. Moreover, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) spent millions of dollars in the recent Democratic primaries, thereby securing the congressional seats of Jamaal Bowman in New York and Cori Bush in St. Louis.
Provided the submissive Democratic elite persists in disregarding Israeli meddling in American elections, Netanyahu will once again affirm his pompous belief that “America is a thing you can move very easily.” For 11 months, Netanyahu has played Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President Biden. Netanyahu's chutzpah can be attributed solely to a submissive Biden, who consistently chose to propagate Netanyahu's falsehoods and misinformation at every chance.
Consequently, it should not be unexpected if Netanyahu's rejection of the Biden-mediated ceasefire proposals and prisoner swap is executed in coordination with the Trump campaign to depict Biden as ineffectual and inconsequential. Israel supported Trump's election in 2016 not because of Hillary Clinton's lack of loyalty, but because Trump's generosity exceeded her proposed commitments. In 2024, we are observing another October Surprise orchestrated by Netanyahu—not due to concerns over a potential shift in Kamala Harris' policy from Biden, the self-identified first Zionist president, but rather because Netanyahu prioritizes his established transactional relationship with Trump.
The dramatic escalation of Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon this week could signal the beginning of an Israeli invasion, potentially aligning with Netanyahu's broader strategy to involve the United States in another conflict specifically tailored for Israeli interests in the region. Netanyahu seeks to shift the political discourse in the US election, compelling Vice President Harris to confront one of two bitter options: either risk losing support from uncommitted voters who oppose the perceived genocide in Gaza if she maintains her timid position, or alienate the single-issue proponents of pro-genocide Israel by challenging Netanyahu's perpetual wars.
Regardless, Netanyahu is ready to execute a second October Surprise without any consequences, aiming to rescue Trump from his decline once more. Simultaneously, Netanyahu aims to sway what Trump described as “the Jewish people … from voting for the enemy” and reinforce his ability to “very easily” move America in selecting the next US president.